Zero: The Climate Race The extraordinary rise of electric cars in developing countries
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Sep 25, 2025 Colin McKerracher, head of transport at BloombergNEF and an expert in electric vehicle markets, discusses the remarkable rise of electric cars in developing countries. From Nepal to Costa Rica, EV sales are outpacing fossil-fuel vehicles due to plummeting battery costs. Colin explores how this trend impacts global oil demand and highlights emerging markets like Thailand and Vietnam. He also touches on electrification in Africa and how local advocates play a crucial role in this shift. The future of transportation is electric, and it's happening faster than expected!
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China Accelerated Global EV Adoption
- China reached organic consumer EV demand three years sooner than expected and now drives global uptake.
- That early consumer takeoff shifted BloombergNEF forecasts upward for 2030 fleet size.
Battery Cost Decline Is The Key Lever
- Rapid battery cost declines made price parity plausible and unlocked mass EV demand in many markets.
- Continued battery improvements are the main conditional driver of long-term electrification prospects.
Policy Choices Directly Shape EV Markets
- Protecting supportive policy levers matters because incentives and fuel-economy rules strongly influence EV adoption.
- Monitor California's waiver and federal tax credit changes as key risks to U.S. uptake.