Bloomberg Intelligence Oil Turns Lower With Iran-Israel Attacks
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Jun 16, 2025 Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, shares her insights on how the ongoing Mideast conflict influences oil prices. Despite tensions, oil production remains intact, with Iran signaling a willingness to de-escalate. Wald discusses how geopolitical events shape market perceptions and the recent stability in equity markets. She also highlights the historical context of oil volatility and the complexities involved in regional security, making for an engaging conversation on investment strategies amid uncertainty.
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Oil Market Risk Premium Insight
- Oil prices fell due to Iran's willingness to de-escalate hostilities with Israel and no disruption to crude production.
- The market's risk premium on oil is currently about $2 to $4 while supplies remain stable.
Strait of Hormuz Stability Factors
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz is challenging due to regional ownership and alternative routes.
- China plays a stabilizing role by pressuring for economic continuity in oil shipments through the Persian Gulf.
Israel's Strategic Targeting in Strikes
- Israel strikes target Iranian domestic energy infrastructure to create internal pressure.
- Major export facilities like Harg Island remain untouched to avoid impacting Iran's oil exports for now.