“‘Slow’ takeoff is a terrible term for ‘maybe even faster takeoff, actually’” by Raemon

For a long time, when I heard "slow takeoff", I assumed it meant "takeoff that takes longer calendar time than fast takeoff." (i.e. what is now referred to more often as "short timelines" vs "long timelines."). I think Paul Christiano popularized the term, and it so happened he both expected to see longer timelines and smoother/continuous takeoff.

I think it's at least somewhat confusing to use the term "slow" to mean "smooth/continuous", because that's not what "slow" particularly means most of the time.

I think it's even more actively confusing because "smooth/continuous" takeoff not only could be faster in calendar time, but, I'd weakly expect this on average, since smooth takeoff means that AI resources at a given time are feeding into more AI resources, whereas sharp/discontinuous takeoff would tend to mean "AI tech doesn't get seriously applied towards AI development until towards the end."

I don't think this [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:
September 28th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6svEwNBhokQ83qMBz/slow-takeoff-is-a-terrible-term-for-maybe-even-faster

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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