Q&A Elliott Morris, "Strength in Numbers"
Nov 7, 2022
G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist at The Economist and author of Strength in Numbers, delves into the fascinating evolution of public opinion polling in the U.S. He unpacks the intriguing reasons polls missed key outcomes in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Morris emphasizes the importance of transparency in reporting poll results and the role of issue polling in shaping democracy. He recounts historical polling missteps and the impact of polling methods, highlighting how technology transformed the landscape of public opinion measurement.
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Polls Show Public Priorities
- Polls reveal what people want beyond election forecasts and help leaders represent constituents.
- Issue polls are often more accurate than horse-race polls and inform policy priorities.
Assumptions Drive Poll Errors
- Poll estimates rest on assumptions like equal response rates across parties, which can fail.
- Differential non-response explained much of the 2016 polling error more than widespread lying.
Show Uncertainty Up Front
- Be transparent about uncertainty and margins of error when reporting poll results.
- Present polls as scientific estimates, not as incontrovertible facts.
