Azeem Azhar's Exponential View Inside the US–China decoupling: What’s really at stake (AI, rare earths, Taiwan, trade)
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Oct 23, 2025 
In this discussion, Jordan Schneider, a technology analyst and creator of ChinaTalk, delves into the complexities of US–China relations amidst growing tech competition. They explore the implications of recent rare earth rules and the historical roots of China's self-reliance strategy. Schneider highlights the messy nature of policy-making, critiques the current US approach, and stresses the rapid shift towards AI deployment in China. He also clarifies misconceptions about China's economic and industrial policies, emphasizing the need for improved US–China relations by 2030.
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Living In A Separate Tech Ecosystem
- Jordan moved to China in 2017 and discovered a distinct technological ecosystem with different apps and UIs.
- That lived experience convinced him tech choices shape daily life and policy outcomes.
Three Phases Of US–China Integration
- US–China ties moved from isolation to deep entanglement and now to messy decoupling.
- Decoupling creates two parallel tech ecosystems that remain economically interdependent.
Controls Breed Resilience
- Attempts to control critical inputs often spur the other side to accelerate self-reliance and resilience.
- Historic autarky drives show that weaponizing dependencies can generate dangerous system dynamics.