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ARK's Bitcoin Price Forecasting Methodology | The Brainstorm EP 86

27 snips
May 5, 2025
David Puell, an insightful Bitcoin analyst at ARK Invest, discusses captivating methodologies for predicting Bitcoin's price by 2030. He unveils Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold', emphasizing institutional investment trends and recent ETF implications. The conversation dives into the intriguing concept of 'liveliness', differentiating between active and dormant Bitcoin supply, which plays a critical role in price forecasting. These dynamic insights shed light on the future of Bitcoin and its market potential.
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INSIGHT

Bitcoin Use Case TAMs

  • ARK's Bitcoin price forecast is based on assessing six total addressable markets (TAM) for Bitcoin use cases.
  • They assume penetration rates for each TAM and divide by the estimated 2030 Bitcoin supply to get a price forecast.
INSIGHT

Bitcoin Value Drivers

  • Digital gold and institutional investment dominate Bitcoin's value across bear, base, and bull cases.
  • Bitcoin's ETF launch outpaced gold ETF AUM accumulation, indicating growing acceptance.
INSIGHT

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

  • Corporations view Bitcoin as a more nimble, digital store of value than gold for treasury holdings.
  • Innovations by companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla are shaping corporate Bitcoin adoption narratives.
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