David Puell, an insightful Bitcoin analyst at ARK Invest, discusses captivating methodologies for predicting Bitcoin's price by 2030. He unveils Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold', emphasizing institutional investment trends and recent ETF implications. The conversation dives into the intriguing concept of 'liveliness', differentiating between active and dormant Bitcoin supply, which plays a critical role in price forecasting. These dynamic insights shed light on the future of Bitcoin and its market potential.
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insights INSIGHT
Bitcoin Use Case TAMs
ARK's Bitcoin price forecast is based on assessing six total addressable markets (TAM) for Bitcoin use cases.
They assume penetration rates for each TAM and divide by the estimated 2030 Bitcoin supply to get a price forecast.
insights INSIGHT
Bitcoin Value Drivers
Digital gold and institutional investment dominate Bitcoin's value across bear, base, and bull cases.
In this episode, Sam Korus, Nick Grous, and David Puell delve into the methodology behind Bitcoin's price forecast for 2030. They explore the total addressable markets for Bitcoin, focusing on its use cases as “digital gold” and institutional investment. The conversation also touches on the evolving narrative of Bitcoin, particularly in light of recent ETF launches, and the implications for corporate treasuries. Additionally, they discuss the concept of 'liveliness' in Bitcoin's supply and how it affects price forecasts, concluding with insights on the dynamics of active versus dormant Bitcoin supply.
If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.
Key Points From This Episode:
Key use cases for Bitcoin include “digital gold” and institutional investment.
Institutional investment is based on the global market portfolio, excluding gold.
Bitcoin's performance relative to gold ETFs shows its growing acceptance.
Corporate treasuries are increasingly considering Bitcoin as an asset.
The narrative around Bitcoin has shifted towards it being a store of value.
Liveliness is a metric that adjusts Bitcoin's supply for price forecasting.
60% of Bitcoin supply is considered active or kinetic.
Market dynamics can influence the liveliness of Bitcoin supply.
A significant event could alter the current equilibrium of Bitcoin's active supply.
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