FYI - For Your Innovation

ARK's Bitcoin Price Forecasting Methodology | The Brainstorm EP 86

May 5, 2025

David Puell, an insightful Bitcoin analyst at ARK Invest, discusses captivating methodologies for predicting Bitcoin's price by 2030. He unveils Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold', emphasizing institutional investment trends and recent ETF implications. The conversation dives into the intriguing concept of 'liveliness', differentiating between active and dormant Bitcoin supply, which plays a critical role in price forecasting. These dynamic insights shed light on the future of Bitcoin and its market potential.

19:12

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David Puell

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Quick takeaways

The podcast emphasizes Bitcoin's potential price forecast relies on its positioning as 'digital gold' and institutional investments within global markets.

The analysis introduces 'liveliness' as a crucial metric, indicating that only 60% of Bitcoins are actively transacted, impacting supply and price projections.

Deep dives

Methodology for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

The methodology used to forecast Bitcoin's price involves assessing six total addressable markets (TAM) relevant to its use case, including investment portfolios and digital gold. By evaluating the TAM for each category and estimating penetration rates, a final price forecast for Bitcoin is calculated based on the projected supply of approximately 20.5 million Bitcoins by 2030. Notably, the two most significant contributors to this forecast are identified as the 'digital gold' concept and institutional investment, which dominate different market scenarios. This structured approach not only provides clarity on where the price projections stem from but also emphasizes the importance of understanding underlying market dynamics rather than solely focusing on numerical predictions.

Intro

2min

Bitcoin: The Digital Gold Debate

9min

Exploring Liveness-Adjusted Bitcoin Price Forecasting

2min

Understanding Bitcoin's Active and Dormant Supply Dynamics

4min

Understanding Bitcoin Price Forecasting Methodology

2min

In this episode, Sam Korus, Nick Grous, and David Puell delve into the methodology behind Bitcoin's price forecast for 2030. They explore the total addressable markets for Bitcoin, focusing on its use cases as “digital gold” and institutional investment. The conversation also touches on the evolving narrative of Bitcoin, particularly in light of recent ETF launches, and the implications for corporate treasuries. Additionally, they discuss the concept of 'liveliness' in Bitcoin's supply and how it affects price forecasts, concluding with insights on the dynamics of active versus dormant Bitcoin supply.

If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.

Key Points From This Episode:

Key use cases for Bitcoin include “digital gold” and institutional investment.
Institutional investment is based on the global market portfolio, excluding gold.
Bitcoin's performance relative to gold ETFs shows its growing acceptance.
Corporate treasuries are increasingly considering Bitcoin as an asset.
The narrative around Bitcoin has shifted towards it being a store of value.
Liveliness is a metric that adjusts Bitcoin's supply for price forecasting.
60% of Bitcoin supply is considered active or kinetic.
Market dynamics can influence the liveliness of Bitcoin supply.
A significant event could alter the current equilibrium of Bitcoin's active supply.

For more updates on Public.com:

Website: https://public.com/

YouTube: @publicinvest

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FYI - For Your Innovation

ARK's Bitcoin Price Forecasting Methodology | The Brainstorm EP 86

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Methodology for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

Evolution of Institutional Investment and Bitcoin's Role

Adjustments Based on Liveliness and Market Dynamics

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts