Swamp Notes: Trump’s ‘you break it, you buy it’ moment
Apr 26, 2025
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John McHenry, VP of North Star Opinion Research, offers insights on Republican voter sentiments, while FT's economics editor Sam Fleming examines Trump's fluctuating tariffs. They discuss the political fallout of Trump's trade strategies and the GOP's balancing act with rising economic concerns. With Trump's assurance not to fire Fed chair Powell despite earlier criticisms, both guests explore how these moves might affect midterm elections and the broader economic landscape, revealing intricate connections between policy and public perception.
Trump's evolving tariff policies reflect corporate America’s concerns and aim to balance tough trade rhetoric with economic stability.
Voter support for tariffs has fluctuated, with recent discontent affecting Trump's approval ratings amid fears of economic repercussions.
Deep dives
Trump's Shifting Trade Approach
President Trump's initial aggressive stance on tariffs against various countries has evolved significantly, reflecting shifting dynamics within financial markets and responses from corporate America. After imposing high tariffs, notably 145% on China, the administration is beginning to reconsider its approach due to the adverse effects these policies have had on market sentiments and economic stability. Corporate concerns, particularly regarding supply chains and product prices, have prompted Trump to express a willingness to negotiate trade deals and soften his rhetoric toward China. The administration's attempts to reassure the public and investors highlight the delicate balance between maintaining a tough stance and addressing real-world economic consequences.
Voter Sentiment on Tariffs
Polling data reveals a complex relationship between voter support for Trump's tariffs and their impact on his approval ratings, especially among Republicans. Initially, a plurality of voters supported significant increases in tariffs on Chinese goods, notably within Republican circles. However, recent trends indicate growing discontent, with Trump's lowest job performance ratings coming from his handling of tariffs, suggesting that economic repercussions may influence voter perspectives ahead of the midterm elections. This shift indicates that Republicans, who have traditionally been wary of tariffs, may face challenges if economic conditions worsen as a result of ongoing trade policies.
Economic Implications and Global Response
The international economic landscape is reacting to the U.S.'s aggressive trade policies, with growing concerns about the implications for global trade and the domestic economy. Organizations like the IMF have revised GDP growth forecasts for the U.S. downward, attributing deceleration to the ongoing trade war and rising tariffs, particularly on China. The potential for supply chain disruptions and higher consumer prices looms large, reinforcing fears about dwindling disposable incomes and consumer sentiment. As uncertainty mounts, the administration may need to recalibrate its trade strategies to mitigate potential long-term economic damage and restore confidence among both domestic and global stakeholders.
Just a few weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was ready to levy tariffs on basically every nation. Today, many of those tariffs have been paused or tempered. Additionally, this week he promised he will not be firing Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, despite his earlier criticism. Should we expect more backstepping from Trump in the face of economic data? And what do the voters think of it all? FT economics editor Sam Fleming joins alongside Jon McHenry, vice-president of the conservative pollster North Star Opinion Research.
Swamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.
