Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, shares her expertise on how tariffs might spark retaliation across markets. Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder of Veda Partners, challenges the notion that the stock market heavily influences presidential decisions. They delve into the complexities of monetary policy, inflation, and upcoming earnings from major retailers like Walmart and Target, highlighting the evolving landscape of consumer behavior and technology in retail.
Amanda Lynam highlights the risk of retaliatory tariffs impacting corporate stability and inflationary pressures leading to economic reactions.
Kate McShane notes that consumer behavior remains selective, influencing retail performance ahead of major earnings reports from Walmart and Target.
Deep dives
Futures Market Advantages
The futures market operates nearly 24 hours a day, offering a continuous trading environment that contrasts sharply with the limited hours of the ETF markets. During the evening hours post-4 p.m., liquidity in ETFs significantly declines, reducing trading opportunities. In contrast, the CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures provide an avenue for traders both day and night, thereby facilitating additional opportunities to capitalize on market movements. This around-the-clock trading can be particularly beneficial during times when other markets are stagnant.
Monetary Policy Uncertainty
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the trajectory of monetary policy leading into 2025, particularly in light of potential inflationary pressures from upcoming fiscal and trade policies following the US elections. Experts suggest that while a return to a higher terminal Fed rate might not be the baseline scenario, developments like re-accelerated inflation could push interest rates beyond initial projections. Monitoring this scenario is vital for assessing its implications on credit markets, as a stable growth environment could be favorable, while inflationary challenges could lead to market instability. Analysts stress the importance of understanding the drivers behind any changes in the Fed's actions, especially in relation to economic growth metrics.
Impact of Fiscal Policies
The podiatrist discusses the concern over potential disorderly movements in treasury yields, indicating that rapid fluctuations could signal underlying economic issues. If inflation continues to rise, coupled with potential retaliatory tariffs, it could exacerbate costs for corporations, leading to more significant economic reactions, including layoffs. Such situations would pressure corporate credit markets as businesses struggle to manage increased operational expenses effectively. Investors remain vigilant regarding movements in treasury yields, particularly around the 4.60 benchmark, which could trigger broader market concerns depending on the context of such changes.
Corporate Credit Outlook
Despite recognizing associated risks, the current outlook for corporate credit remains relatively stable, provided that economic growth stays supportive and tariff risks are manageable. There is potential for tighter spreads in corporate bonds if financials continue to perform well, which can subsequently enhance the entire investment-grade index. Although concerns exist about how companies may handle inflationary pressures, the prevailing sentiment is that there are still opportunities for investment-grade bonds to outperform, particularly under favorable economic conditions. Analysts emphasize that the interaction between economic growth and interest rates will be crucial in determining the near-term trajectory for corporate credit.
- Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research - Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Co-Founder & Director of Economic Policy - Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs US Retailing/Broadlines and Hardlines Analyst
Amanda Lynam of BlackRock is concerned across-the-board tariffs could spike retaliation. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says, "Investors think that the stock market, whether it's going up or down has a real leash on the president. I don't think that that's true." Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs says, "We definitely still see the consumer being choiceful," ahead of Walmart and Target earnings this week.