Prometheus Podcast Episode 2: Danny Dayan
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Apr 20, 2025 Danny Dayan, a seasoned private investor and former hedge fund manager, shares his profound insights into macro markets. He discusses the significant impact of demographic shifts on spending and investment, particularly how baby boomers' retirement influences the economy. Danny also dives into the complexities of current financial conditions, exploring risks like stagflation and rising tariffs. He emphasizes innovative investment strategies and the importance of adapting to evolving market data, all while adding a dash of humor from his social media experiences.
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Demographics Shape Macro Framework
- Danny Dayan's macro framework begins with demographic analysis to understand long-term economic capacity and constraints.
- He combines this with cyclical data analysis to identify asymmetric market opportunities differing from consensus.
Age Cohorts Drive Economic Patterns
- Different age cohorts exhibit distinct consumption, savings, and productivity patterns that drive economic behavior.
- Current cycle sees millennials at peak household formation, driving sustained demand unlike the prior baby boomer-driven cycle.
Demographics Explain Economic Resilience
- Removal of baby boomers from labor force lowers aggregate savings, increasing consumption and supporting higher growth and inflation.
- Fed has been slow to realize that higher neutral rates and resilient economy relate to these demographic-driven shifts.