The Future of Migration: A Discussion with Hein de Haas
Dec 23, 2023
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Hein de Haas, author of How Migration Really Works, joins Owen Bennett-Jones to debunk myths about migration. They discuss the scale of migration, the impact on the Western world, and the discrepancy between rhetoric and action on immigration. They also explore the challenges of migration policy, push factors from the developing world, and the unnoticed demand for labor in the immigration debate.
Global migration crisis is a myth as only 3% of the world population are international migrants and 0.3% are refugees.
Integration of immigrants is successful across generations, focusing on participation in society rather than endless debates about multiculturalism.
Deep dives
Debunking the Migration Crisis Myth
One common left-wing and right-wing myth is the idea of an unprecedented global migration crisis. This myth assumes that migration is at an all-time high and out of control. However, data reveals a more nuanced perspective. International migrants make up only about 3% of the world population, a figure that has remained stable for the past 50 years. The percentage of refugees is even smaller, at roughly 0.3% of the global population. Similarly, illegal migration is not as massive as believed, with statistics showing that 9 out of 10 Africans who migrate to Europe do so legally. While local problems may exist, the overall idea of an overwhelming wave of people is not supported by data.
Integration and Assimilation in Migration
The debate around integration and assimilation often overlooks the long-term perspective. Despite short-term challenges, integration has been successful across generations in various populations. Previously labeled as impossible to assimilate, many immigrant groups have become integral parts of their host societies within two or three generations. Multicultural policies have often been rooted in assumptions that immigrants will eventually return home, leading to a lack of acceptance and exclusion. To address integration issues, it is essential to focus on providing opportunities for participation in society, such as access to education and employment, rather than getting caught up in endless debates about multiculturalism.
Labor Market Dependency and Immigration
The issue of labor market dependency is at the heart of immigration debates. Many Western countries have gradually shifted to more open market economies with increased labor market precarity and reliance on migrant workers. The rhetoric of wanting less immigration contrasts with the economic reality that demands foreign workers to fulfill labor shortages. If governments genuinely aim to reduce immigration, they need to fundamentally reform the labor market and pursue policies that regulate temporary contracts and create more job opportunities for native workers. Without these changes, the current discursive gap between immigration policies and economic needs will persist.
The Future of Migration and Changing Demographics
Looking ahead, changing demographics and global dynamics may reshape migration patterns. As developing countries experience poverty reduction and promote education, migration tends to increase. These migrants are driven by aspirations and improved resources, seeking better opportunities for themselves and their families. In the future, countries facing aging populations, including China, will likely become major migrant destinations. The notion that poverty reduction will reduce migration is misguided, as development often leads to increased migration. Policymakers should take these factors into account and engage in a comprehensive debate about society's goals and the kind of immigration policies needed to address economic realities.
Immigration has become one of the biggest issues in all western democracies. And the debate is so charged it's hard to know who to believe. Which is why Hein de Haas has written How Migration Really Works: The Facts About the Most Divisive Issue in Politics(Basic Books, 2023). Listen to him bust some myths with Owen Bennett-Jones.
Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press.