Establish the Edge Fantasy Football ETE Projections Special Part 2: AFC South with Ben Gretch
Jun 26, 2026
Ben Gretch, a fantasy projections expert, breaks down the AFC South with player- and team-level analysis. They dig into Houston’s run-first tilt and how that shapes Stroud and the WR room. The Colts’ pace and target concentration around Jonathan Taylor and key receivers get scrutiny. Jacksonville’s usage chaos and Tennessee’s reset under new coaches round out the projections-focused conversation.
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Colts' 2025 Passing Efficiency Was Likely Unsustainably High
- Colts under Shane Steichen showed extreme early-season passing efficiency with Daniel Jones, but regression and Jones' Achilles create uncertainty.
- Jones' AYA spiked to 8.1 and completion rate jumped; expect regression toward career norms post-injury.
Draft Jonathan Taylor For Volume Over Variance
- Target Jonathan Taylor aggressively in drafts if you value stable three-down workload rather than upside.
- Taylor ran ~90% of Colts RB rush attempts late in 2025 and caught passes each game, supporting a high-volume, reliable projection.
Alec Pierce Is A High Variance Deep Target Play
- Alec Pierce's massive ADOT and recent ankle surgery create a high-variance fantasy profile: elite per-target upside but questionable volume and durability.
- With Pittman gone Pierce shuffles into a vertically dominant role, but ADOT regression and Jones' Achilles are risks.