Gold ETF Inflows Increase and Canada Makes Major Mortgage Changes
Sep 19, 2024
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Discover how Canadian inflation has finally hit the Bank of Canada’s 2% target and what this means for consumers. Explore recent changes in mortgage policies and their potential impact on affordability for homebuyers. Plus, hear about Dollarama's impressive earnings amid shifting consumer habits. Dive into the remarkable increase in gold ETF inflows as prices rise, along with insights into the dynamics driving these investments. Unpack the challenges in housing supply and the long-term debt implications facing younger generations.
Canada's inflation rate has stabilized at 2%, reaching the Bank of Canada’s target, driven by lower costs in discretionary items.
Recent mortgage policy changes may improve accessibility for first-time buyers but could exacerbate housing affordability issues over time.
Deep dives
Canadian CPI Trends
Inflation in Canada has shown signs of stabilization, with August CPI recorded at 2%, marking the first time it has met the Bank of Canada’s target in some time. This drop from 2.5% in July indicates a broader trend, as most provinces are aligning with the target, aside from a slight overage in British Columbia and Ontario. The downward movement in inflation has been driven by decreases in discretionary items, particularly household furnishings and clothing, which saw year-over-year drops of 0.8% and 4.4% respectively. Despite these positive trends, shelter costs remain a concern, experiencing a year-over-year increase of 5.7%, indicating persistent pressure in that area.
Regulatory Changes in Mortgages
Recent regulatory adjustments to Canadian mortgage rules, including raising the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) insured mortgage cap from $1 million to $1.5 million, have sparked debate about their implications. This change is expected to allow more individuals in expensive markets, such as Toronto and Vancouver, to enter higher-value properties with potentially lower down payments, although the exact requirements are yet to be clarified. Additionally, an extension of amortization periods to 30 years for first-time buyers aims to make home ownership more accessible. However, critics argue that these measures may further inflate housing prices and lead to increased debt levels, particularly impacting younger generations in the future.
Dollarama's Strong Performance
Dollarama is experiencing significant growth, with a 7.4% increase in sales and a remarkable 4.7% rise in comparable store sales. These results are particularly impressive as they follow a previous year's growth of 15.5%, showing an ability to maintain momentum even in a fluctuating market. The retailer's success can be attributed to an effective value proposition, especially as consumers become more keen on astute spending habits amid economic uncertainty. Operating margins also increased, alongside a net income boost, indicating that Dollarama is effectively navigating the competitive landscape, bolstering its position in the discount retail sector.
ETF Trends and Consumer Behavior
The month of August 2024 saw a record inflow into precious metal ETFs, particularly gold, as investors sought safe havens amid economic instability. The BMO ETF saw significant interest, suggesting a growing recognition of gold's value as a hedge against expanding government deficits and market fluctuations. Meanwhile, large-cap equity ETFs also reported strong inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as they capitalize on perceived recovery opportunities in major markets. In contrast, Canadian equity ETFs suffered outflows, highlighting a possible trend of investors favoring the perceived stability of larger, established companies over local options during uncertain times.
In this episode of The Canadian Investor Podcast, we dive into the latest Canadian CPI data as inflation finally hits the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for the first time in a while.
Plus, we discuss the federal government’s recent changes to mortgage policies, including raising the CMHC insured mortgage cap and extending amortization periods, and how these moves will likely negatively impact affordability for Canadian home buyers. We also take a closer look at Dollarama’s impressive Q2 2025 earnings, and finish off with a recap of August’s ETF fund flows, highlighting a record month for precious metal ETFs.