Value After Hours S06 E28 Asif Suria on The Event-Driven Edge in Investing and Special Situations
Aug 19, 2024
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Asif Suria, an expert in event-driven investing, delves into the nuances of corporate actions like mergers and SPACs. He discusses strategies such as merger arbitrage and the importance of assessing company fundamentals amid market volatility. Suria explores risks associated with investment timelines and the evolution from diversified portfolios to concentrated positions. He highlights the relevance of insider buying trends and market resilience, offering valuable insights for navigating the complexities of today's investment landscape.
Event-driven investing focuses on corporate actions like mergers and acquisitions, creating unique opportunities for capitalizing on price disparities in stocks.
Spinoffs and insider transactions are significant strategies in event-driven investing, allowing investors to leverage undervalued segments and insider confidence signals.
Navigating the complexities of SPACs is crucial for investors, as many encountered challenges post-merger, highlighting the need for careful selection in this market.
Deep dives
Understanding Event-Driven Investing
Event-driven investing, often referred to as special situations investing, centers around opportunities created by corporate actions, such as mergers and acquisitions. A key strategy within this realm is merger arbitrage, where investors buy stocks of companies that are being acquired, capitalizing on the price disparities that usually exist due to various market factors. For instance, when Microsoft announced its acquisition of Activision Blizzard, the stock of Activision often traded at a discount relative to the acquisition price. This approach allows investors to benefit from these price mismatches, especially during the waiting period before a deal officially closes.
Key Event-Driven Strategies
Several strategies fall under the umbrella of event-driven investing, with spinoffs and insider transactions being significant ones. Spinoffs occur when a company divests a part of its business that may be undervalued, as demonstrated by the historical success of brands like Ferrari post-spinoff from Fiat Chrysler. Insider transactions serve as another potential indicator, as substantial purchases by company insiders can signal confidence in the company's future prospects. By analyzing these corporate actions and the context surrounding them, investors can identify appealing opportunities and navigate potential risks effectively.
Navigating the SPAC Landscape
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) have generated considerable attention, particularly during the recent boom where many companies sought to go public via this route. Investors typically purchased SPACs at IPO, awaiting announcements of transactions with operating companies, but faced challenges as many SPACs encountered post-merger failures. Examples like WeWork highlight the pitfalls, where despite favorable public market conditions, poor financial fundamentals led to significant downturns post-SPAC. Understanding the intricacies of SPACs and strategically selecting those with genuine value potential is crucial for investors seeking to capitalize on this unique market mechanism.
The Merger Arbitrage Approach
Merger arbitrage plays a substantial role in event-driven investing, with a typical expectation of generating returns based on headline deals. Despite high-profile acquisitions like Elon Musk’s uncommon decisions surrounding Twitter, historically, around 95% of deals usually close, presenting unique opportunities for investors. A prudent approach involves not only targeting high-spread deals but also looking at smaller deals to mitigate potential risks. The strategy emphasizes balance, as advised by seasoned investors, who note that even if one out of ten deals fails, the overall returns can still be positive if approached judiciously.
Insights on Insider Trading
Insider trading, particularly the buying and selling of stock by company executives, can provide valuable insights into a company’s potential trajectory. Notably, substantial purchases from high-ranking insiders can signal strong future performance, while extensive sell-offs may indicate caution. Tracking individual transactions within a sector can reveal patterns, such as surges in insider buying amidst market volatility, providing investors with potential lead indicators. A thorough understanding of insider trades can enhance idea generation in the event-driven investing strategy, helping to uncover undervalued opportunities.
Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast
We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P.
About Jake
Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1
Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.
We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.
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ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE
Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®.
He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.
He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).
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