Harold James, author of Seven Crashes, discusses the historical impact of supply shocks on globalization and capital flows. The podcast explores the responses to economic crises by influential figures like Keynes, the challenges faced by central banks in addressing supply side shocks, and lessons learned for a more optimistic future.
Historical crises have shaped globalization through unexpected consequences like shifts in consumer behavior.
The insights of Karl Marx and Stanley Jevons on economic behavior have influenced modern economic thinking and responses to crises.
Deep dives
Crises Impacting Globalization
Supply and demand crises like the 1840s food supply shock, the 1970s energy supply shock, and the Great Depression have shaped globalization. From food price hikes due to wet summers to 1970s inflation affecting consumer behavior, these crises demonstrate unforeseen consequences like the 1970s shift from gas guzzler cars to fuel-efficient models.
Economic Intellectual Responses
Karl Marx expected capitalism to swiftly collapse post-1840s crisis but was surprised by its resilience. Meanwhile, Stanley Jevons's mathematical approach in the 1860s lay the foundation for modern economics. Their insights on price behavior and marginal decision-making reshaped economic thinking and responses to supply and demand shocks.
De-Globalization and Nationalism
Keynes advocated for national self-sufficiency in the 1930s, signaling a shift towards de-globalization. Various crises, like the Great Depression, led to income compression through restrictions on international trade. The interplay of globalization's benefits and nationalist policies remains a contentious issue in modern politics.
Central Banking Amidst Crisis
Central banks face challenges amidst ongoing crises, expecting prolonged high-interest rates and increased inflation. Divergence in currency stability may lead to experimentation with non-state money like crypto assets. The need for adaptive monetary policies to navigate supply shocks emphasizes the evolving nature of global economics.
Join Russell Napier for a fascinating discussion with Harold James, author of Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalisation. And unlike many of our episodes, brace yourself for a relatively optimistic conclusion!
•The Library of Mistakes runs an outstanding course called the Practical History of Financial Markets. To find out more, go to: www.libraryofmistakes.com/course
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