GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish Trump Blinks: Back to All-Time Highs?
Mar 25, 2025
Dario Perkins, an economist at TS Lombard, and Freya Beamish, also an economist at TS Lombard, dive deep into the effects of stock market fluctuations on potential recessions. They tackle pressing questions about whether market downturns can trigger economic slumps and discuss the Fed's ability to adjust rates amid tariffs. The duo examines how U.S. political dynamics may impact European economies, particularly Germany's stimulus on inflation and growth, while highlighting resilience among high-income earners in these turbulent times.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Stock Market & Recession
- An equity market sell-off can amplify a recession, but it's unlikely the primary cause.
- Dario Perkins suggests other factors, like tariffs, are more likely recession triggers.
Retail Investor Strategy
- Freya Beamish bought US equities until tariff day, anticipating a potential rally.
- She believes current market conditions are not enough to cause a downturn.
Trump's Pain Point
- Trump's pain threshold for a market sell-off is estimated around 10%, potentially causing policy reversals.
- Dario Perkins bought the dip at roughly a 10% downturn.