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RiskReversal Pod
Markets are Hard to Handle with Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley
Dec 1, 2023
Mike Wilson, market expert and analyst from Morgan Stanley, joins the hosts to discuss the November stock market rally, late-cycle behavior, earnings, the bond market, the worst possible scenario for stocks, the single biggest risk for 2024, what consensus could get wrong next year, sentiment indicators, stock market concentration, M&A, and the appeal of U.S. markets as a safe haven. Later, they discuss the Elon Musk DealBook interview, the meteoric rise in the S&P 500, GM's $10B buyback, M&A, the energy space, JPMorgan survey, LME wins High Court ruling, and Danny's NFL picks.
01:08:48
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Quick takeaways
- The market is facing challenges with poor earnings and a difficult operating environment, despite the success of certain stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
- There are concerns about a potential recession and signs of the employment cycle deteriorating, which could negatively impact the economy.
Deep dives
Mike Wilson's Economic Outlook
Mike Wilson, Chief Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses his outlook for 2024 and highlights the challenges faced by the market. He emphasizes that while certain stocks, such as the MAG 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, etc.), have performed well, the average stock and most stocks are struggling due to a difficult operating environment and poor earnings. Wilson notes that the only positive aspect for the market is that the Fed's hiking cycle is ending, but cautions that a soft landing may not be a good sign for growth next year. He also warns about the concentration of market cap in a small number of stocks and the potential risk in private credit. Wilson suggests that more M&A activity and capital reallocation may be needed to provide opportunities for investors.
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