The Milk Road Show

Arthur Hayes’ Crypto Outlook: Why Markets Are Set to Rip Into 2026

17 snips
Nov 27, 2025
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX and adept crypto macro analyst, shares his insights on Bitcoin's recent decline and forecasts an impending market surge fueled by liquidity. He explains how ETF dynamics have masked underlying liquidity issues and why he believes the market's bottom is already in. Arthur emphasizes the importance of focusing on U.S. dollar liquidity and offers guidance for retail investors on navigating altcoins and avoiding pitfalls of leverage. He also discusses the bullish implications of current financial policies and economic trends.
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INSIGHT

ETF Hype Masked Real Dollar Liquidity

  • Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin's summer rally to ETF and DAT illusions that masked a trillion-dollar dollar liquidity drain.
  • Once those vanity flows reversed, Bitcoin corrected to reflect the underlying dollar liquidity contraction.
INSIGHT

Big Funds Ran Basis Trades In IBIT

  • Large trading shops used IBIT for basis trades: buy ETF, pledge it, short futures, and pocket the carry.
  • When funding rates fell those traders unwound positions, creating ETF outflows and price declines.
INSIGHT

TGA Rebuilds Extract Market Liquidity

  • Treasury cash rebuilds (TGA rebuild) extract liquidity when the government issues debt to refill its account.
  • In 2023 Yellen reallocated reverse repo balances to inject liquidity; in 2025 that buffer wasn't available, causing a larger liquidity drain.
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