Agenda Dialogues AMNC25 Chief Economists Briefing
Jun 24, 2025
Aparna Bharadwaj, a managing director at Boston Consulting Group, shares insights alongside Paul Gruenwald, S&P's global chief economist, Santitarn Sathirathai from Thailand Development Research Institute, and Peking University's Huang Yiping. They dissect the darkening global economic outlook amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations. Topics include trade volatility, the shift towards broader economic forecasts, the rise of Southeast Asia, and the intricacies of globalization. Their discussion emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies and local partnerships in this evolving landscape.
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Uncertainty Dominates Economic Outlook
- The current global economic outlook faces high uncertainty, particularly due to geopolitical conflicts affecting oil prices and inflation.
- China's economy is showing resilience but is challenged by property adjustments and external shocks.
Uncertainty Slows but No Recession
- Economic uncertainty, largely from US trade policies, slows activity without causing a recession yet.
- Investment and consumer spending dampen amid uncertainty, but some reversed import surges indicate potential recovery.
Prepare for Prolonged Trade Uncertainty
- Prepare for prolonged uncertainty as trade policies shift from efficiency to optionality and security.
- Watch for second-round impacts of trade adjustments like increased competition and margin squeeze on SMEs.