How Much Will the NFA Tax Cut Surge Demand for Silencers, SBRs? (ft. Open Source Defense)

Last week, we talked about the political implications of the National Firearms Act (NFA) tax cuts in the budget bill. This week, we're talking about the market implications.

To do that, we've got the co-founders of Open Source Defense back on the show. In addition to running a smart publication on gun culture and politics, Kareem Shaya and Chuck Rossi also run a firearms business investment firm. They said the tax cut is likely to juice demand for silencers (more accurately known as suppressors), short-barrel rifles and shotguns, as well as guns in the "any other weapon" (AOW) category.

They looked at the recent surge in silencer demand related to last year's precipitous drop in registration processing times as a potential guidepost for how much demand may spike. Kaream noted suppressor sales were up 80 percent year-over-year between 20023 and 2024. He said demand could see a similar jump once the cut hits, although the six-month delay before that happens might depress the market in the meantime.

Meanwhile, Chuck argued that new demand would likely open up innovation in the space. He said he expects new companies will come in to try and produce mass market suppressors or even disposable ones. He said we could see renewed interest in short-barrel rifles and the long-neglected AOW category that leads to new breakout products.