The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#57 Chris Finlay | Is It Time To Worry? Plus: A Conversation With Middleburg's CEO
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Oct 30, 2025 Chris Finlay, Founder and CEO of Middleburg Communities, shares insights from his extensive experience as a developer and operator in the apartment sector. He discusses concerns about potential recession impacts on rental markets, while emphasizing Middleburg's focus on high-growth areas and development over acquisitions. Finlay also highlights his nonprofit, Entryway, which helps individuals experiencing homelessness secure job training and employment in the apartment industry, boasting impressive success rates. Their conversation unpacks industry dynamics and strategies for navigating the shifting landscape.
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Absorption Will Fall As Supply Drops
- Absorption (household formation) has been strong but will fall as supply tightens.
- Parsons stresses that lower absorption isn't negative if supply falls more, which would reduce vacancy and lift rents.
Judge Demand Against Supply
- Watch absorption relative to supply, not absorption alone, when forecasting vacancy and rents.
- Prioritize scenarios where supply contracts faster than absorption to expect vacancy improvement.
Leasing Traffic Has Collapsed Since 2021
- Leasing traffic and leads per unit plunged since 2021 due to massive new supply.
- Operators face longer backfill times and pressure to prioritize occupancy with concessions.