The NPR Politics Podcast Fight Inflation Without Recession? How Two Top Economists See It
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Oct 20, 2022 The podcast dives into how inflation impacts daily life, with rising grocery prices causing voter concern. Two economists debate the gloomy outlook of a potential recession against measures taken by the White House to spur economic activity. There's a striking discussion on the challenges of balancing inflation control and unemployment, revealing a job market paradox. Employers are cautious about layoffs, and insights into government policy efforts showcase the ongoing battle against inflation's political fallout.
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Current Inflation Picture
- Inflation remains high, but some measures show slight declines from peak levels.
- Other measures indicate worsening price increases across broader categories, suggesting a persistent issue.
Summers' Inflation Prediction
- Larry Summers believes controlling inflation requires reducing demand for products and labor.
- This will likely lead to increased unemployment and a potential recession within the next 18 months.
Economic Consensus Shift
- The economic consensus is shifting towards Summers' warnings, with the Federal Reserve adjusting inflation and unemployment expectations upward.
- While a recession is likely, its severity and the necessary increase in unemployment remain uncertain.