David Wearing, a Lecturer in international relations, and Ammar Azouz, a Syrian academic, share compelling insights on the dramatic fall of Bashar Al Assad. They discuss the emotional rollercoaster for the Damascus population as they confront both liberation and uncertainty about the future. The conversation explores the shift from nationalism to fundamentalism in the region and the complex dynamics of leadership within these movements. Ultimately, they reflect on the hopes and challenges facing a post-Assad Syria, with potential for both renewal and conflict.
The unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad after 50 years highlights the significant impact of shifting international alliances on internal politics.
The mixed reactions of jubilant civilians reflect both relief from oppression and apprehension about prospective governance under HTS leadership.
Ahmad Mohammed al-Jalani's strategic attempt to reposition HTS as a moderate force reveals the complexities of post-revolutionary governance in Syria.
Deep dives
The Swift Fall of the Assad Regime
The Assad regime, which ruled Syria for 50 years, collapsed in a surprising 12-day uprising led by Ahmad Mohammed al-Jalani and his Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The rapid offensive captured major cities including Aleppo, Hama, and finally Damascus, showcasing a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Among jubilant civilians celebrating in Damascus, a sense of uncertainty loomed for those who once supported Assad, fearing reprisals and the future under HTS leadership. This mixed reaction emphasizes the complex dynamics of regime change in a country long marked by conflict and oppression.
International Support and Its Withdrawal
The decline of support for Bashar al-Assad from key international allies such as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah has been pivotal in this sudden regime change. With Russia preoccupied by the war in Ukraine and Iranian influence waning due to regional conflicts, the Assad regime found itself increasingly isolated. Analysts highlight that the weakening of these external supports has left Assad vulnerable, contrasting sharply with prior years where these allies bolstered his hold on power. The collapse illustrates how shifts in international dynamics can rapidly alter internal political landscapes.
The Duality of Celebration and Fear
As the regime fell, many Syrians expressed joy over Assad’s departure, reflecting on years of violence and repression under his rule. However, this jubilation is shadowed by fear regarding the potential of HTS to govern effectively and humanely, given its history and affiliations with extremist ideologies. Interviews with civilians highlighted their relief at freedom from dictatorship, as well as concerns about the stability and inclusivity of a new governance model. This underscores the precarious balance between optimism for change and anxiety about the future direction of leadership in Syria.
The Transformation of HTS and Its Implications
Jalani, as the leader of HTS, attempts to distance his group from its extremist past while presenting a more moderated image to both Syrians and the international community. Although he frames the group as a stabilizing force promising to protect minority rights, concerns remain about the true intentions behind this rhetoric. Historical context suggests a pattern of Islamist groups claiming moderation while pursuing repressive tactics. Analysts note the significance of Jalani's pragmatic approach, as it could determine HTS's ability to govern effectively while navigating the diverse demographic and ideological spectrum of Syria.
The Risks of a Repeating Cycle of Violence
Despite the initial optimism following the fall of Assad, there are fears of potential chaos as competing factions vie for control in a post-Assad Syria. Observers point to previous scenarios in the region, such as Iraq and Libya, where power vacuums led to further violence and instability. The uncertainty surrounding HTS's intentions and capabilities raises questions about whether the group can unify the various anti-Assad forces and prevent a return to conflict. Ultimately, the path forward remains uncertain, but there exists a cautious hope among Syrians for a more democratic future free from decades of oppression.
