Just did a livestream with Michael Tracey. We talk about the latest news in the Ukraine War. The Ukrainians have accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the Trump administration, and the ball is now in Putin’s court, in Rubio’s words.

This seems to us like the minerals deal all over again, where Ukraine hawks are maneuvering in the hopes of getting Trump committed to supporting Ukraine and angry at Putin. We discuss the motivations of the various actors involved and whether anyone has an incentive to stop fighting, or alternatively whether it would make sense for Trump to pull the plug on Ukraine. Our outlook is grim, as it doesn’t seem like we are anywhere near peace. From the outside, it looks as if Putin has every reason to continue the war.

Michael tries to convince me to take Trump’s supposedly expansionist aims literally, and argues for a connection between tariffs and promises to make Canada the 51st state. I at first think he’s crazy and ask what evidence he has for that link. Michael delivers by pointing to a recent Truth Social post where Trump makes the association explicit. He moved my perspective on this a bit. On the idea that Trump now sees himself as a kind of messianic figure, I loved this profile of the man and his ear from September by Olivia Nuzzi, which was truly a work of art.

Near the end, we take some questions from the audience. Michael explains why he’s “Mearsheimered out,” and we give our overall outlook on the tariffs and what to expect from Trump going forward. We talk about why right-wingers are so pro-Putin these days, and I argue that it actually does mostly come down to gays, fealty to symbols of Western civilization, and a trad aesthetic.

I also try to convince Michael to take seriously the idea that Russian propaganda has a major role to play in how the right is perceiving reality. See the thread here for my recent conversation with Tucker and how he has bought into a Russian influence operation regarding Ukraine selling weapons online. See also my article, “Putin as the Patron Saint of Right-Wing Misanthropy.”

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