Elaine Dezenski on U.S. Sanctions and Economic Statecraft in 2025
Jan 29, 2025
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Elaine Dezenski, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, shares her insights on the future of U.S. sanctions and economic strategies. She delves into U.S.-China relations, geopolitical challenges, and the need for stronger global alliances to combat authoritarian influences. Additionally, she discusses the evolving landscape of anti-corruption efforts and how sanctions play a critical role in this new Cold War dynamic. Dezenski’s expertise sheds light on the complexities and opportunities that lie ahead.
The U.S. is shifting towards a holistic approach to economic statecraft, integrating sanctions with tariffs and export controls to enhance global security.
Focusing on individual actors involved in corruption and kleptocracy, rather than solely nation-states, aims to increase the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.
Deep dives
Economic Tools of Sanctions Policy
The U.S. is expected to utilize sanctions as part of a broader strategy of economic power and foreign policy. This approach may evolve to involve a combination of sanctions, tariffs, export controls, and investment reviews, indicating a more comprehensive definition of economic statecraft. Sanctions may increasingly target individual actors like cartel members and facilitators of kleptocracy rather than solely state actors such as China or Russia. By refining the focus of sanctions, the U.S. aims to enhance their effectiveness and overall impact on corrupt networks and illicit financial activities.
The Geopolitical Landscape and U.S. Sanctions
Key geopolitical issues such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions with Iran are likely to keep sanctions against these nations at the forefront of U.S. policy. As the situation evolves, there may be additional sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly concerning its oil economy, and continued scrutiny of Iran’s influence in the region amidst shifting alliances. Furthermore, the U.S.-China relationship is critical, prompting potential sanctions on circumvention tools like China's cross-border interbank payment system. This proactive stance aims to protect the integrity of the global financial system while anticipating future conflicts.
Challenges in Global Alliances and Corruption
The dynamics of global alliances are changing, with increased collaboration among authoritarian regimes posing new challenges for the U.S. Its strategy must account for a potential shift in alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, which could undermine democratic values and market practices. Corruption and kleptocracy have become central to national security conversations, necessitating a more integrated approach to anti-corruption efforts within trade negotiations. By addressing the vulnerabilities within these corrupt systems, the U.S. can strengthen its position and better align its geopolitical interests for the future.
‘Navigating the fault lines between the U.S. and China and this accelerated convergence of economic statecraft – not just how sanctions might be deployed, or export controls, but also tariffs and investment review – all of which are going to figure into this new space.’
-Elaine Dezenski on key risks to be thinking about
In the latest episode of the Sanctions Space Podcast, Justine is joined by Elaine K. Dezenski, senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. They discuss predictions for U.S. sanctions in 2025 under the new administration, including how sanctions may be positioned within a broader set of economic tools and economic statecraft, how global alliances may evolve, as well as how the U.S. and its partners can combat transnational kleptocracy.
Read Elaine’s bio here: Elaine K. Dezenski
https://www.fdd.org/team/elaine-dezenski/
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