Ukraine's counter-offensive is running out of time, raising questions about NATO's commitment. Western support for Ukraine's conflict against Russia is crucial. Engaging in negotiations with Russia carries risks. Anxiety in European capitals over potential changes in the White House. The potential impact of a second Trump presidency on NATO. Continuous communication needed to maintain consensus on Ukraine's offensive.
Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia has progressed slower than expected, raising questions about NATO's commitment and ability to provide support.
Experts argue that Ukraine lacks the necessary military capabilities to overcome Russia's strong defense and make significant gains in the conflict.
Deep dives
The Progress of Ukraine's Counter-Offensive
The Ukraine counter-offensive has progressed more slowly than expected, with Russian defenses remaining strong. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledges the challenges and the need for bigger steps despite the difficulties. General Mark Milley, America's top military figure, admits that progress is slower than hoped, which affects American support amid war fatigue among its citizens. NATO leaders express a desire to see Putin defeated, but questions arise regarding their commitment and ability to provide the necessary support. The Russian president, Putin, believes Ukraine's counter-offensive has not yielded results and highlights the casualties suffered by Ukraine. There are concerns about the impact of war fatigue among Ukraine's allies and the waning enthusiasm for continued support if there is a change in leadership, particularly in the United States.
Assessing the Military Perspectives
Military experts analyze the conflict from a practical standpoint and highlight the importance of essential military capabilities. Without air superiority, sufficient air defense, artillery superiority, and mind-clearing capacity, it is challenging for Ukraine to defeat a well-equipped, dug-in, and well-defended Russian force. Experts argue against General Milley's assertion that the outcome is uncertain, stating that Ukraine lacks the capacity to overcome the strong Russian defense. The high number of casualties and the limited force capacity further limit Ukraine's ability to make significant gains. The panel also recognizes the Russian strategy of absorbing enemy strength through minefields to prepare for subsequent counter-offensives. They also discuss Russia's desire to prevent NATO presence in Ukraine and underline the importance of aligning Western policies with American interests.
Challenges and Support from Western Powers
The panel examines the expectations and concerns of European countries and the United States in supporting Ukraine, both militarily and politically. European support has relied on the progress and achievements of Ukraine's counter-offensive. European and US leaders face the challenge of managing escalations and finding mutually acceptable compromises. Concerns arise regarding the speed and sustainability of weapon supplies, the timing of military support, and the capability of Ukrainian troops to effectively utilize provided equipment. The consensus among Western governments is that Ukraine's security is a vital part of Europe's security. However, continued sustainable support and unity require a clear understanding of shared interests and objectives.
The Impact of Political Factors and Elections
The podcast examines the potential implications of upcoming presidential elections in the United States and the United Kingdom on long-term support for Ukraine. The panel highlights concerns over the fluctuating support for Ukraine from both Democrats and Republicans. There is anxiety about the potential impact of a change in leadership on sustained support for Ukraine. The importance of transatlantic alliances and the need for a cohesive approach to security matters, including Ukraine, is emphasized. It is suggested that the United States needs to reevaluate its core interests and the balance between global responsibilities and regional security considerations. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its implications on the geopolitical landscape are part of the broader discussions surrounding global power dynamics and emerging challenges.
America's top general has warned that Ukraine’s counter offensive is running out of time. Speaking to the BBC, Mark Milley admitted the offensive had gone more slowly than expected. With just one month of fighting before winter weather sets in, does the pace of the push back against Russian forces suggest that Nato needs to rethink?
The United States has been the largest provider of military assistance since the war began - more than 43 billion dollars worth, so far. With polls suggesting many Americans oppose any more, is the West in danger of willing the ends without delivering the means? If the will to resist Putin does begin to falter among his allies, President Zelensky says he is ready to make the case to Ukrainians for why a long war of attrition is preferable to negotiating with Russia. But with doubtful allies, might they soon not have much choice?
Shaun Ley is joined by Sir Laurie Bristow, UK’s Ambassador to Russia 2016-2020, and Deputy Ambassador to Russia 2007-2010; Alissa de Carbonnel - deputy program director, Europe and Central Asia for the International Crisis Group; Daniel L. Davis, senior fellow for think tank Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army.
Also featuring: Paul Adams, BBC diplomatic correspondent in Kiev; Alexander Rodnyansky, Adviser to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
(Photo: Ukrainian soldiers place a Ukrainian flag at a building, during an operation that claims to liberate the first village amid a counter-offensive, in a location given as Blahodatne, Donetsk Region, Ukraine,11 June, 2023. Credit: Reuters)
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