EA Talks EAG London 2019: Estimating long-term effects without long-term data (David Rhys Bernard)
It’s important to estimate the long-term impacts of our actions, but we often can’t observe long-term outcomes within a decision-relevant time frame. David Rhys Bernard, a PhD candidate at the Paris School of Economics, recently tested an alternative approach — measuring the short-term impacts of different interventions on a variety of “surrogate” outcomes, then using those outcomes to reach a long-term impact estimate. In this talk, he explains his findings and their implications.
This talk was filmed at EA Global 2019: London. Find out how to attend a future EA Global conference: https://www.eaglobal.org/.
Learn more about effective altruism: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/.
Effective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube.