Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stuart Kaiser & Stephen Stanley
Jan 14, 2025
Explore how recent financial data affects equity markets and signals economic growth through the lens of the 10-year yield. Discover the nuances of the American economy's slowdown and the potential for recovery amid uncertainty. Delve into job growth trends, predicting a possible spike in unemployment by 2025. The conversation also highlights the importance of business investment and offers smart personal finance strategies focusing on savings and effective investment planning.
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10-Year Yield and Equity Markets
- Stuart Kaiser sees the 10-year yield reflecting growth expectations, not just risk aversion.
- This growth-driven yield movement may be less damaging to equities than feared.
Economic Outlook and Business Uncertainty
- Stephen Stanley anticipates slower economic growth in the near term due to business uncertainty surrounding policy.
- He predicts a labor market slowdown and a slight unemployment rate increase in 2025.
Business Investment as a Wildcard
- Business investment (I) is a key component of economic output (Y=C+I+G).
- Stanley highlights business investment appetite as a wildcard for the first half of 2025.