João Cravinho: AFTER THE VIOLENT DIVORCE - WHAT APPROACH TO EU-SAHEL RELATIONS?

Irene Horejs in conversation with João Cravinho

AFTER THE VIOLENT DIVORCE: WHAT APPROACH TO EU-SAHEL RELATIONS?

The relations of the EU with Central Sahelian States took a dramatic turn in recent years. After a decade of conflict against insurgencies and jihadist groups and amidst an ever deepening security, economic and humanitarian crisis, the armies of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger seized power by a series of coup d’états in 2021, 2022 and 2023 prompting harsh reactions by the West and the organization of West African States ECOWAS. The Sahelian military juntas reacted by ousting French troupes – until then their main supporters in the fight against Jihadists – forced the withdrawal of the UN peace keeping mission MINUSMA and the EU civil military missions and engaged with Russia for military support. They also withdrew from ECOWAS and created a new regional body “the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES)”. France in turn suspended all its cooperation, other EU Member states did likewise and the EU stopped budget support operations which had made up as much as 80% of the national budget in the case of Niger.

Many predicted the collapse of the new regimes after the withdrawal of Western military and financial support. Yet, despite a worsening security and economic situation and increasingly authoritarian rule, the military juntas and their narrative of sovereignty seem to continue enjoying popular trust, especially among the urban youth.

Given the multiple strategic interests in the region, EU Member States largely agree on the need to remain engaged with the 3 countries in Central Sahel and tighten relations with the other states in the wider Sahel. The discussion turns about how to approach relations, how to materialize this engagement and how to contain expansion of Russian and Turkish influence in this region, which is so close to the EU´s southern neighborhood.

João Gomes Cravinho was appointed European Union Special Representative for the Sahel on 1st of December, 2024 and is responsible to support the definition and implementation of such new approach. He was Portuguese Minister of Foreign Affairs (2022 – 2024), Minister of Defense of Portugal (2018 – 2022) and had previously served as EU Ambassador to India and to Brazil and as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of the Portuguese government.

Welcome:
Georg Lennkh, member of the Board, former Austrian Special Envoy for Africa (2005-2010)

Moderation:
Irene Horejs, former EU Ambassador to Niger and Mali