Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea: Michael Darda & Ian Bremmer
Oct 2, 2025
Tom Keene dives into a compelling discussion on nominal GDP growth with Michael Darda, revealing a promising 4–5% growth scenario that could benefit inflation and corporate profits. Ian Bremmer raises alarms over potential US aid cuts in Africa, highlighting the risks of diminishing American influence and the rise of China as a power player. This engaging conversation unpacks the economic landscape and geopolitical dynamics shaping our future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Nominal GDP Sweet Spot
- Michael Darda argues a 4–5% nominal GDP growth is the "sweet spot" for corporate profits and reasonable long-term rates.
- He warns persistent 3% inflation over years could damage Fed credibility and market rates.
Real Rates Fell, But Expectations Rose
- Darda highlights that recent Fed easing cut real rates by ~200 basis points, supporting top-line growth.
- He notes inflation expectations rising offset rate cuts, so credible Fed policy remains essential.
U.S. Retreat Opens Space For China
- Ian Bremmer says the U.S. is retreating from global aid and engagement, creating openings for China.
- He views reduced American leadership on aid and visas as strategic losses with long-term costs.