Explainer 450: What is Lebanon’s new government up against? Spoiler: itself
Jan 15, 2025
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Lebanon's new leadership faces significant challenges rooted in its complex historical political settlement. The discussion highlights the impact of the National Pact on effective governance and how it hampers progress. With Hezbollah's weakened stance, the authority of the Lebanese military comes under scrutiny in a politically fragmented landscape. This analysis reveals the intricate dance of power and politics that continues to shape the nation.
Lebanon's political structure, stemming from the 1943 National Pact, creates profound gridlock that impedes effective governance amidst deep-seated sectarian divisions.
President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, despite their inexperience, may leverage recent military setbacks to challenge Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanese politics.
Deep dives
Challenges in Lebanese Government Stability
Lebanon has a history of instability in its national government, evidenced by the rapid turnover of prime ministers, with 52 having held the position since the establishment of the state 80 years ago. The innovative political structure, known as the National Pact, was designed to distribute power among the country’s diverse ethno-religious communities by allocating specific roles, such as a Maronite Christian president and a Sunni Muslim prime minister. However, this arrangement has led to prolonged political gridlock and divisive partisanship, undermining effective governance and often resulting in stalemates that hinder the decision-making process. Recent developments include the election of Joseph Aoun as president, who, alongside Nawaf Salam as the new prime minister, brings a fresh perspective; their relative inexperience in politics may serve as an unintended advantage given Lebanon's complex political landscape.
Hezbollah's Diminished Influence
The Lebanese government faces the significant challenge of addressing the power held by Hezbollah, a heavily armed group that has operated as a parallel state within Lebanon. Recent military setbacks, including the death of their leader Hassan Nasrallah and numerous commanders due to Israeli airstrikes, have weakened Hezbollah's standing and military capabilities. As a result of these developments, the group failed to secure their preferred candidate for the prime minister position, signaling a potential shift in the power dynamics of Lebanese politics. President Aoun's commitment to establishing the Lebanese military as the sole authority of armed force indicates a decisive intention to diminish Hezbollah's influence, though achieving this objective will likely prove difficult and requires careful navigation of Lebanon's entrenched political realities.
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Navigating Governance: Lebanon's New Political Landscape
As Lebanon welcomes a new president and prime minister, Andrew Mueller explains the peculiarities of the country’s 1943 political settlement and why it has proved to be an inhibitor to actual governance.