Francesca Rudkin: Is the country warming up to the Prime Minister?

To use a Love Island-ism, it looks like Chris Luxon appears to have been a slow burn on the nation since being sworn in as our Prime Minister in late November – but if the latest 1News-Verian poll is anything to go by, we appear to be warming to the man and his leadership.   

The poll shows numbers for the governing parties remained largely unchanged, National remains steady on 38%, ACT remained steady on 7%, and NZ First remains steady on 6%.  Labour is up 1 on 30%, and Te Pati Māori is up 1 on 4%. The Greens dropped 2 points to 11%.   

But the most interesting thing about this poll was the result for preferred Prime Minister. Christopher Luxon's is up 5 percentage points to 28% in the rankings. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick and NZ First leader Winston Peters also saw small increases.  

At the beginning of October last year Christopher Luxon was sitting at 26%, but in the last two 1News-Verian polls, he had dropped to 23% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.  

While the Prime Minister “doesn’t read too” much into polls, I imagine the National Party and Luxon will be quietly happy with the movement in this poll.   

So, what does this say about where we are at? If you are a small or medium-sized business owner, do you feel like the country is at a turning point? Business Confidence in New Zealand increased to 27.10 points in July from 6.10 points in June of 2024. Is this down to the leadership you’re seeing?   

While there was an appetite for change at the last election, the polls have revealed mixed feelings towards the coalition and the preferred Prime Minister stakes.   

I would suggest that many of us are still viewing the economy and the direction of the country with a sense of caution. It feels like the ship has steadied somewhat, and that is what is being reflected in the poll.   

In our household, we’re still very conscious of our spending. Notification of cost increases seem to be arriving in our inboxes monthly, so while tax cuts are appreciated, seeing the OCR final drop is a relief, and hearing the Government address overspending within government departments, it feels like we’re paused rather than moving forward at a great rate.   

It’s worth noting this poll was taken before the OCR was lowered last week, I wonder if you take that into consideration and a few more pay cycles with the tax cut, will they make even more of a difference in the next poll?  

How do you read this poll? Does it reflect how hopeful we are and changing times or is it more about an increase in confidence in the Prime Minister, his leadership and the way he is managing the coalition? 

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