The Macro Dirt Podcast Battle Royale Zone in the S&P and a Dirtnap Conference Review
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May 6, 2025 Tony and Jared dive into the thrilling clash between inflation and deflation. They explore the unpredictable nature of the S&P 500, discussing market trends and key resistance levels. The shifting dynamics of commodities and Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset are thoroughly examined. Insights into private equity challenges and a recap of an inspiring conference featuring captivating speakers add depth to the conversation. Humor and reflection create a lively atmosphere as they look forward to more engaging discussions ahead.
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S&P 500 Battle Royale Zone
- The S&P 500 is in a "battle royale zone" between 5600 and 5850 points, with uncertain direction ahead.
- Jared Dillian expects a rise to 5800-6000, consolidation over summer, then a fall in the autumn.
Bearish Outlook on Oil Prices
- Oil prices have broken down below key support around $61-62 and are likely to move lower.
- Both hosts believe oil could test $50 or even lower, which would greatly benefit the economy via cheaper gasoline.
Mixed Outlook for Bonds
- Inflation is decreasing, which supports bonds, but growing deficits and lack of deficit reduction create risks.
- Expect bond yields to be stable but cautious due to supply concerns despite bearish inflation trends.