The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff arrive?
Nov 14, 2025
Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, discusses the delayed economic reports due to the US government shutdown and the need for coherent fiscal strategies. Vicki Redwood, a Senior economic advisor, analyzes AI's impact on entry-level jobs, explaining the nuances of market trends and the role of other factors like degree inflation. Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist, touches on India's rare earths sector and how AI presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly in outsourcing and productivity enhancements.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
AI Payoff Likely Delayed But Real
- AI investment should boost productivity but the macro payoff will arrive later in the decade and likely sooner in the US.
- Overinvestment by hyperscalers can be wasteful financially but helps diffuse technology and lower prices for wider adoption.
Pair Fiscal Fixes With Growth Plans
- Governments must pair fiscal consolidation with coherent growth strategies to stabilise debt.
- Relying on future AI-driven growth alone will not solve near-term budgetary pressures.
Nominal Capex vs Real Productive Investment
- Nominal capex plans from big tech look huge but real investment (price-adjusted) determines productive capacity.
- Some hyperscaler overinvestment may be necessary to build supply, cut costs and enable broad diffusion.