The atmosphere in Jackson Hole is notably subdued, contrasting with past years, as attention turns to Jerome Powell's crucial speech. Experts weigh in on the Federal Reserve's potential shifts in monetary policy amid rising inflation and a cooling labor market. The discussion includes the implications of higher long-term bond yields and how investment strategies are evolving. Tensions around tariffs and their impact on costs further complicate the economic landscape, as markets cautiously prepare for upcoming decisions.
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insights INSIGHT
Jackson Hole Mood: Quiet And Focused
Jackson Hole feels unusually subdued with global attention fixated on Powell's speech at 10 a.m. Wall Street will dissect the line-by-line wording for clues about September policy.
insights INSIGHT
Expect Tweaks, Not Clear Guidance
Kristina Hooper expects a tweak to the Fed's framework but little concrete guidance for September. Powell likely avoids revealing his cards while pressure for easing builds.
insights INSIGHT
25bp Cut Is Plausible Despite Inflation
Hooper thinks a 25bp cut is probable despite higher inflation prints because labor can deteriorate quickly. Powell will weigh history and Fed independence in his messaging.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 21st, 2025 Featuring: 1) Bloomberg Surveillance host Tom Keene joins from Jackson Hole to preview Jay Powell's speech. The Federal Reserve's annual conference began Thursday evening with a dinner for central bankers, economists, and journalists. Chair Jerome Powell will speak Friday at 10 a.m. New York time, and investors will be listening for any hint of what policymakers may do at their September meeting. 2) Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group, joins to talk about markets walking on eggshells ahead of Jackson Hole and discusses the long-term outlook for the 10-year yield. US stock futures paused this week’s run of losses ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address, with markets scaling back bets on imminent rate cuts. 3) Karen Manna, Investment Director at Federated Hermes, talks about ongoing pressure on the Fed and Fed independence as all eyes remain on Jackson Hole. Fed watchers and investors will be listening for any hint of what policymakers may do at their September meeting. The US central bank may be on the cusp of again lowering interest rates, after keeping them on hold this year to gauge how tariffs would impact the economy. Powell could indicate this week if his colleagues are leaning one way or the other. With inflation above the Fed’s 2% target at the same time that hiring is cooling, officials have so far been divided on how soon cuts can come. 4) RaeAnne Mitrione, Partner at Callan Family Office, discusses the market pricing in Fed easing as consumers remain resilient and inflation remains uncertain. Market pricing shows investors expect a rate cut in September, followed by at least one more later this year. President Donald Trump, a frequent critic of the Fed, has demanded that Powell and his colleagues lower rates significantly, with some in the administration calling for an outsize half percentage point cut next month.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
