Lenin quipped that "there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." The post Liberation Day drama of early April 2025, That Was The Week’s Keith Teare suggests, will be remembered as one of those weeks. While the world isn’t exactly ending, Keith suggests, the “West” - or at least a post Bretton Woods American centric west - is finished. He may well be right in seeing Trump’s clownish tariffs as a symptom of American decline. But if the United States is the past and China the future, then where - Keith and I discuss - does that leave Silicon Valley? What becomes of supposedly pioneering American AI technology in a China centric world? And can traditional Big Tech leviathans like Apple and Google survive the end of the West?
FIVE TAKEAWAYS
* Shift in global economic power: Our conversation highlights a dramatic change in global trade patterns from 2000 to 2024, with China replacing the US as the dominant trading partner for most countries. This is visualized through maps showing the world changing from predominantly "blue" (US) to "red" (China).
* Trump's tariff policy: Keith Teare argues that while Trump's tariffs may seem irrational, they represent a rational (though potentially harmful) attempt to slow America's relative economic decline. He suggests these policies aim to protect America's position even if they shrink the global economic pie.
* Impact on Big Tech: We discuss how companies like Apple are vulnerable to tariffs due to their global supply chains, with predictions that an American-made iPhone would cost $3,000-$5,000 instead of $1,000. We also note that even service-oriented tech companies could face European tariffs in retaliation.
* Historical significance: Keith characterizes the recent economic shifts as comparable to major historical events like the Bretton Woods agreement, suggesting this represents the end of the post-WWII economic order where America was the unambiguous world leader.
* Silicon Valley's political divide: We touch on how Silicon Valley has shifted politically, with many tech elites supporting Trump's "America first" approach, while noting exceptions like Elon Musk who has criticized specific tariff policies. The Palo Alto based Keith observes that AI development remains a bigger topic of conversation in the Valley than politics.
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