Premium Edition: How To Invade Iran with Malcom Kyeyune
Feb 7, 2024
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Expert on Middle Eastern conflicts, Malcom Kyeyune, discusses the possibility of invading Iran, Iranian air defenses, the impracticality of an invasion, and the potential for a bombing campaign as an alternative. The podcast also explores the relationship between Iran and Hamas, the strengths of the US and Iraqi military, and the strategic future of the region.
Invading Iran would be practically impossible for the US due to its size, topography, and logistics challenges.
A bombing campaign against Iran would have limited effectiveness and risks strong retaliation from Iran, including cyber attacks and attacks on American forces in the region.
Deep dives
The Challenge of Invading Iran
Invading Iran would be a formidable task for the United States. The size and topography of Iran, as well as the long logistics chains required, make it practically impossible. Even with a reduced capacity US military, it still lacks the scale and manpower needed for such an invasion. Moreover, the preparations alone would take at least a year, within the fire envelope of Iranian theater ballistic missiles. Additionally, it is unlikely that neighboring countries would allow the US to base its troops there for an invasion. The Pentagon is aware of these challenges and would not present invasion options without unrealistic demands, like re-instituting the draft with millions of soldiers.
The Ineffectiveness of a Bombing Campaign
While some individuals and media outlets suggest a bombing campaign against Iran, it is important to recognize the limitations and potential consequences of such actions. Iran has a formidable air defense system, with a variety of platforms, including modern air defense systems and missiles. History has shown that bombing campaigns cannot completely suppress air defenses, as seen in the NATO campaign against Serbia in 1999. Moreover, Iran's size, terrain, and strategic depth make it challenging to effectively target critical infrastructure and military assets. A bombing campaign would likely provoke strong retaliation from Iran, potentially including attacks on American forces in the region and cyber attacks. It is essential to consider the risks and limited effectiveness of a bombing campaign against Iran.
The Myth of Technological Supremacy
The notion that the US can rely on technological superiority to easily defeat Iran in a war is a flawed perspective. Comparisons to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 do not hold up, as Iran is a much larger and more formidable opponent. Iran's military has spent years preparing for a conflict with the US, leveraging its size, mountainous terrain, and nationalism. The US military, even at its reduced capacity, cannot match the scale and size required to successfully invade Iran. Additionally, Iran possesses a sophisticated missile stockpile and air defense capabilities that would pose significant challenges to any air campaign. The idea that the US can simply bypass these obstacles with its technological prowess is unrealistic and ignores the lessons of history.
Escaping the Middle East Quagmire
The discussion of a potential war with Iran raises deeper questions about the Western world's strategic position in the Middle East. The West finds itself in a challenging situation, where excessive military interventions have not led to long-term stability. The complexities of the region, including nationalistic sentiments, religious divisions, and regional power dynamics, make it difficult for external forces to impose their will. An understanding of the limitations of military force is crucial, as it is unlikely to result in a desirable outcome. The West must consider alternative approaches and means of engagement to escape the ongoing quagmire in the Middle East.
The US is now bombing Iranian targets, via B1 bombers that have to be flown direct from Texas to perform the task.
This is an interesting new form of madness.
As the West is pulled ever-deeper into the quagmire, we're taking a low road/high road approach to prediction: attempting to model the potential for serious conflict right up to an Iraq-style land war invasion.
Then, we're devoting the second half of the show to thinking more strategically, about the future of the region, the prospects for shutting the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential strategic cards the West has left.
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This week is a Premium Week - every month, we offer our Patrons an exclusive special edition. Our chat with Malcom went on for 1h40, so we've decided to offer the free listeners the first 40 minutes.
If you'd like to hear the full whack, including Malcom's thoughts on the potential for Iranian sleeper cells to perform sabotage operations in Europe and America, please do sign up.
It's $5/£5/€5 a month, and you can cancel any time.
Hell, at this point, you could probably just pay your fiver, go in there, binge on all the previous premium eps, and exfiltrate the very next day. If you were so inclined.
