Bloomberg Surveillance A Shutdown Looms as Markets Move Forward
Dec 20, 2024
Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, shares insights on the equity, commodity, and dollar outlook for 2025, especially regarding the potential impact of a government shutdown. George Ball, Chairman at Sanders Morris, discusses strategies for asset allocation, stock picks, and how markets respond to political uncertainty. They explore the interplay between inflation expectations and market volatility, emphasizing cautious investment approaches in this unpredictable economic landscape.
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2025 Market Outlook
- U.S. equity markets show positive momentum and short positioning in yields, suggesting higher rates for longer.
- The U.S. dollar has shown a strong upward trend despite recent market turbulence.
Inflation and Interest Rate Risks
- Sticky inflation and rising rates are concerns for the U.S. economy.
- The steepening yield curve shows that the market is pricing in these longer-term inflation risks.
Commodities Outlook
- Weaker economic data has put downward pressure on commodities overall.
- Certain commodities like coffee and cocoa offer unique supply-demand opportunities.