Bloomberg Surveillance Shutdown's Impact and Geopolitical Outlook
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Oct 2, 2025 
Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, dives into the economic fallout of the government shutdown, discussing potential GDP impacts and market confidence. He highlights the importance of private-sector data in navigating investment strategies. Ian Bremmer, geopolitical analyst and founder of Eurasia Group, unpacks U.S.–China relations and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. He emphasizes the shifting dynamics of global influence and America’s perceived reliability among allies.
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Shutdown Impact Depends On Duration
- The economic damage from a shutdown depends on duration and can be severe if it lasts weeks or months.
- Private data and tracking models still show robust Q3 real final sales near 3%, arguing against immediate recession.
Use Markets And Private Data When Fed Data Lags
- Use private-sector releases and market-based indicators when government data is unavailable.
- Rely on equity and credit signals to forecast the next one to two quarters when official data is delayed.
Markets Lead Macro By Months
- Financial markets lead macro data by months, so current easy financial conditions point to better near-term growth.
- Credit and broader financial conditions can extend that lead to six or seven months for forecasting.