Morgan Housel: Understanding Elon Musk, Jensen Huang and Other Outliers in Tech

Apr 5, 2024

Morgan Housel, bestselling author and partner at The Collaborative Fund, discusses the role of luck in success, the complexities of visionaries like Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and others, the hype and reality of startup valuations, and challenges facing the VC industry.

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INSIGHT

Success Is Tail-Driven And Unforeseeable

Massive success is largely unforeseeable and tail-driven, even for creators and startups.
Expect a few unpredictable outsized winners to drive most returns, not the ones you initially expect.

INSIGHT

Reframe Luck As Serendipity

'Luck' is better framed as serendipity: many influential factors lie outside individual control.
Higher-degree outlier success correlates with a larger role for serendipity alongside talent.

ADVICE

Copy Repeatable Habits, Not Unique Advantages

When studying successful people, separate repeatable behaviors from unrepeatable circumstances.
Emulate actionable habits and ignore idiosyncratic advantages like era or birthplace.

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