Chief China Economist, Jing Liu, discusses China's 2024 growth target, focusing on challenges in achieving it, pandemic recovery, consumer spending, monetary easing, and shift towards a new growth model. The podcast also explores China's strategy for sustainable growth through domestic consumption, social benefits, and countercyclical stimulus measures, including the issuance of special treasury bonds for infrastructural projects.
China aims for 5% growth through stimulus measures like lower interest rates and reserve adjustments.
Focus on high-quality growth involves reducing income inequality and boosting domestic consumption for economic stability.
Deep dives
China's Economic Growth Target Set at Around 5%
China has set an economic growth target of around 5% for the year, consistent with past trends, requiring significant effort to achieve due to the Basifac effect. Despite challenges such as ongoing pandemic recovery, lower per capita spending, and moderate export growth, government interventions like monetary easing aim to stimulate demand through lower interest rates and reserve requirement adjustments.
Transitioning Towards High-Quality Growth Model
China is shifting towards a high-quality growth model focusing on modernization, green transition, and boosting domestic consumption. Efforts include reducing income inequality to strengthen the middle class and increase consumer spending. Government initiatives like improving social benefits aim to support this transformation and enhance long-term economic stability.
Implications for the Equity Market
While the Chinese equity market has faced challenges and poor sentiment, potential factors for improvement include clearer and effective policies, evidence of economic recovery translating to company profits, and positive performance during reporting seasons. The market awaits signals of progress to reverse negative sentiment and drive confidence in economic growth and corporate earnings.
Chief China Economist, Jing Liu, joins Herald van der Linde to discuss China's 2024 growth target and break down the jargon around it.
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