Join Matt Argersinger, a Motley Fool analyst, as he digs into the world of real estate with Dave Meyer, head of real estate investing at BiggerPockets. They explore the shifting landscape of the market as we approach 2025, discussing key factors shaping investment opportunities. Meanwhile, discover how Disney's ad-supported streaming tiers are thriving and Amazon's ambitions to challenge Google's advertising dominance. Insights on economic trends and predictions make this a must-listen for investors!
Disney's success with ad-supported streaming highlights a growing consumer preference for affordable entertainment options during economic uncertainty.
Amazon's strategy to capture ad revenue aims to challenge Google's dominance, reflecting shifting dynamics in the digital advertising landscape.
Deep dives
Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns
The current economic climate shows signs of ongoing inflation, despite hopes for a soft landing. Recent job reports indicate stronger employment numbers, with 256,000 jobs created and unemployment dropping to 4.1%, which has raised concerns among investors about the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. The Fed's latest meeting minutes suggest a slower pace for potential interest rate cuts due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic growth, causing market volatility. As a result, the outlook remains uncertain, with rising treasury yields reflecting investor anxiety over economic stability.
Online Retail Performance During the Holidays
Holiday online spending reached $241 billion, marking an 8.7% increase compared to last year, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending despite economic challenges. The report emphasizes the growing dominance of mobile shopping, which accounted for over half of the total spending, and the rise of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services that contributed significantly to overall retail performance. However, there's concern regarding margin pressures due to increased discounting, which could impact profitability as retailers navigate consumer behavior shifts. Overall, while holiday sales showed strength, attention must be paid to consumers' credit card debts and savings, which may indicate future spending limitations.
Delta Airlines Reports Strong Earnings
Delta Airlines is experiencing significant growth, reporting its highest-ever annual revenue and a robust demand outlook for 2025. The airline enjoyed a 10% increase in share price after announcing a revenue growth of 5.7% due to increased corporate bookings and international travel demand. Moreover, Delta's operating margins improved to 12%, signaling effective cost control measures alongside revenue growth. This positive performance sets a favorable precedent for upcoming earnings reports from other airlines, with a focus on how they will match Delta's success.
Shifts in the Real Estate Market Forecast
The real estate market is currently viewed as transitionary, with indications that it may be emerging from a recession period characterized by dramatically low transaction volumes. The lack of affordability has been highlighted as a primary barrier to market activity, reducing both demand from buyers and supply from sellers. Looking ahead, there is optimism that, despite ongoing high mortgage rates, transactions will gradually increase as market participants adapt to new economic conditions. Hot markets are expected to shift back to more traditional urban regions, as construction surges in sunbelt states begin to level out amidst a potential correction cycle.
Disney’s streaming numbers show ad-supported tiers are a hit with consumers, and Amazon takes aim at the approach that made Google’s ad business ubiquitous online.
(00:39) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss:
- What the December Fed minutes, latest jobs numbers, and final holiday shopping figures say about the big picture.
- The first look at Disney’s ad-supported streaming numbers, Amazon’s plans to come after Google’s ad turf, and Meta’s changes to its content moderation policies.
(19:03) Dave Meyer – head of real estate investing at Bigger Pockets – talks Matt Argersinger through the state of real estate and the markets he’s watching in 2025.
(33:43) Ron and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Paylocity and Gannett.
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