In Moscow's Shadows 131: European Strategy and Vorobyov's Prospects
Jan 21, 2024
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Dilemmas and limitations facing European strategy over Ukraine. Hungary's actions and the changing perspective of Europeans. Challenges in developing a strategy in response to Putin's attack. Sequestering Russian assets for Ukraine's economic recovery. Exploring Andre Varabiov's potential as president. Rise and fall of a former minister of finance. The potential rise of Vorybov and his qualities as a successor.
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Quick takeaways
European assistance towards Ukraine is hindered by political obstacles, but there is a growing awareness of the need for long-term commitment and the challenge lies in managing political challenges, maintaining momentum, and securing funding.
European countries need to address Ukraine fatigue, develop a clear strategy, and consider security guarantees and NATO's role in sustaining Ukraine's security.
Governor Vorobyov's focus on centralization and real estate development in the Moscow region raises concerns about environmental conservation and urban expansion balancing.
Deep dives
European Assistance to Ukraine and Political Obstacles
European policy and assistance towards the war in Ukraine is being hindered by political obstacles, particularly from Hungary. Despite this, there is a growing awareness of the need for long-term commitment and a realization that the conflict will continue for several years, possibly even beyond 2025. The challenge lies in managing political challenges, maintaining momentum, and securing funding, as well as making tough decisions regarding defense planning and aid strategies.
Addressing Ukraine Fatigue and Developing a Clear Strategy
European countries and the EU as a whole need to address Ukraine fatigue and develop a clear strategy for the conflict. There is a difficulty in identifying the end state and the extent of territorial concessions that may be necessary. Additionally, the limitations of European leverage and the lack of driving the decision-making process pose challenges. The need for security guarantees and the potential role of NATO in sustaining Ukraine's security are crucial factors to consider.
Governor Vorobyov: Centralization and Development Initiatives
Governor Vorobyov of the Moscow region demonstrates a focus on centralization and real estate development. He has promoted the elimination of elected local government positions in favor of managed or appointed officials, which has sparked controversy. Vorobyov's interest in development and infrastructure projects, such as forest amnesty laws and massive multi-story developments, raises concerns about the balancing of environmental conservation and urban expansion in the region.
The Challenge of Defining Ukraine's Borders
The podcast discusses the challenge of defining Ukraine's borders and its impact on Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Full return to the 1991 borders is ideal, including returning Crimea, but there is a growing sense that this may be unlikely. To be a NATO member, Ukraine must have defensible borders, which is difficult with parts of Ukraine under Russian occupation. However, resolving the border issue would require significant political and constitutional changes.
Seizing Frozen Russian State Assets for Economic Recovery
The podcast explores the idea of seizing frozen Russian state assets, worth around $300 billion, and providing them to Ukraine for economic recovery. This proposal, while contested, suggests that sequestering this money could support Ukraine's economic revival. However, there are concerns that such a move may trigger counter-seizures and have wider implications for financial stability. Some argue for only using the profits made by financial institutions holding these assets. Nonetheless, this approach creates perverse incentives, potentially leading to the seizure of Western corporate assets by the Kremlin.
A podcast of two halves. First of all, I look at the dilemmas and limitations facing European (EU and UK) strategy over Ukraine. Why is it so hard?
After the break, I consider another of the younger officials sometimes listed as an up-and-comer: Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov. Why do I not really rate him?
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