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Coffee House Shots

US election: how did the polls get it so wrong?

Nov 7, 2024
James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata, and Kate Andrews, political commentator for The Spectator, dive into the stunning US election results. They discuss how a close race turned into a landslide, uncovering misjudgments by Democrats about voter priorities and issues. The conversation touches on the pitfalls of polling, particularly the underestimation of right-wing support, and explores the concept of ‘asymmetric realignment’ in voting patterns. Finally, they analyze shifting dynamics between economic concerns and identity politics.
18:51

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The polling errors in the US election indicate a systematic misjudgment of right-leaning voter preferences influenced by non-response bias.
  • The Democratic party's strategic focus on white, college-educated voters led to neglecting traditional bases, revealing the complexities of race and identity politics.

Deep dives

Trump's Landslide Victory

Donald Trump has achieved a significant victory in the recent election, winning not only the popular vote by a margin of approximately four and a half million votes, but also securing key swing states that were pivotal for his campaign. Despite Arizona and Nevada yet to be formally called, their leaning towards Trump, alongside victories in all seven swing states, indicates a robust Republican mandate. This result positions Trump to potentially exercise considerable power over the next two years in the Oval Office, raising questions about his upcoming priorities and initiatives. The discussion emphasizes a surprising shift in voter sentiment, particularly regarding issues that resonated during the election.

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