The Inside Story Podcast Will the ceasefire hold between Afghanistan and Pakistan?
Oct 19, 2025
In this discussion, Elizabeth Threlkeld, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, and Obaidullah Baheer, an adjunct lecturer at the American University of Afghanistan, delve into the recent ceasefire between Afghanistan and Pakistan. They explore the challenges the Afghan Taliban face in controlling the TTP and highlight the precariousness of regional stability. The conversation also touches on the humanitarian impact on border civilians, the complexities of external influences, and the need for a unified approach to de-escalation in a politically fraught landscape.
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Limits Of Taliban Control Over TTP
- The ceasefire's durability is doubtful because the TTP and allied groups were not party to the talks.
- The Afghan Taliban face practical and political limits in controlling ideologically aligned militants along a porous border.
False Equivalency In Blame Attribution
- Pakistan often equates TTP attacks with Afghan state responsibility, creating a false equivalency.
- Blaming Kabul for every militant action overlooks limits of influence and risks unjustified military responses.
Pakistan's View: Afghanistan 'Out Of Control'
- Javid describes Pakistan's view that Afghanistan is 'out of control' and hosts TTP elements using its soil.
- He says Islamabad repeatedly warned Kabul and expects guarantees to prevent cross-border attacks.