Consolidated Macro Summary: October 16, 2024

This episode dives into two key macro questions: whether the Fed continues its asymmetrically dovish reaction function and if Trump’s policy proposals could disrupt the current Goldilocks market regime. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggests continued support for robust growth and a resilient labor market amid choppy inflation, while Trump’s aggressive tariffs and tax cuts raise concerns of a potential fiscal crisis. The discussion also covers portfolio strategies, highlighting the outperformance of risk assets like equities and Bitcoin versus long-term Treasury bonds, along with quantitative models that signal a short-to-medium term correction risk. Listeners are guided through the nuances of a market expected to maintain its risk-on, disinflationary bias through early 2025, despite looming threats from bond market volatility and inflation surprises later on.