E117: What Will Family Offices Invest into in 2025? w/Hansen Ringer
Dec 3, 2024
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Hansen Ringer, Managing Director at Sepio Capital, shares his expertise in alternative investments. He discusses how family offices are refining their investment strategies in light of recent market trends. Ringer delves into the unique dynamics between stocks and bonds, especially after the shifts caused by inflation. He also highlights the importance of diversifying beyond traditional portfolios, the current landscape of hedge funds, and the critical role of benchmarking in asset allocation. Tune in for insights on navigating the complex world of investing in the coming years.
Family offices are shifting from expensive hedge funds to liquid bond alternatives that simplify investment strategies and reduce costs.
The podcast illustrates how the distressed credit market offers compelling risk-return opportunities, contrasting with the current challenges faced by venture capital.
Understanding the changing correlation between stocks and bonds is crucial for adaptive investment strategies, especially amid inflationary pressures that disrupt traditional models.
Deep dives
The Changing Landscape of Hedge Strategies
The podcast discusses the shifts in portfolio management strategies, particularly the declining necessity for hedge strategies due to the availability of cheaper and more understandable bond options. Investors are increasingly experiencing recency bias, impacting their view on the value of hedge funds which often come with high fees, complexity, and liquidity issues. During periods of underperformance, these hedge funds lose appeal as institutional investors find it challenging to justify their expensive fees for a lack of substantial returns. The speaker emphasizes the importance of liquidity, suggesting that if two investment streams offer the same returns, the one with daily liquidity is preferred due to its added value.
The Role-Based Investment Framework
Cepio Capital employs a distinctive role-based investment framework to navigate portfolio construction, categorizing assets into growth drivers, diversifiers, and sensitivity to inflation or deflation. This framework helps assess the risks and intentions behind holding various asset types, where growth drivers include public and private equities aimed at long-term growth. The diversifiers are unique as they offer low correlations to stocks and bonds but target returns similar to equities, incorporating assets like real estate and commodities. This categorization enables them to manage portfolios effectively for families with diverse investment objectives, from aggressive growth targeting to risk-averse strategies.
The Current Market Dynamics
The podcast highlights the divergent fortunes of private credit and venture capital, illustrating how private credit has become highly sought after while venture capital appears less appealing at the moment. The speaker notes that the distressed credit space presents attractive risk-return dynamics, particularly for non-performing loans, while the venture capital market reflects signs of overheating in previous years. Tight valuations and recent down rounds indicate a potential for restructuring, presenting new opportunities for savvy investors. Managers must carefully approach these market conditions and focus on tactical adjustments between having exposure to growth versus diversifying assets.
Understanding Asset Correlations
The discussion delves into the correlation between stocks and bonds, noting a significant paradigm shift where this relationship has faltered. Historically, a negative correlation between these asset classes bolstered the effectiveness of the traditional 60-40 portfolio, but this correlation reversed during inflationary periods, leading to simultaneous declines. In such environments where inflation exceeds 2%, both bonds and stocks can suffer, challenging the traditional risk management approach. Grasping this dynamic is essential for investors to adapt their strategies for the changing financial landscape, particularly in recent years.
Exploring Alternative Investment Structures
The conversation also touches on the growing interest in structures like GP-led secondaries, which present enticing opportunities for aligning interests between GPs and LPs. These structures enable funds to maintain their top-performing assets while providing liquidity options without the pressure of liquidating underperforming positions. The benefits are enhanced by having short-duration assets that limit the infamous J-curve often associated with private equity. The podcast highlights the importance of understanding investment cycles and maintaining liquidity preferences while exploring unique sectors within private credit and other non-traditional investment avenues.
Hansen Ringer, Managing Director at Sepio Capital sits down with David Weisburd to discuss the asset class that delivers equity-like returns without the market risk, what distressed credit reveals about market cycles and investor behavior, and what happens when stocks and bonds move together.
Our Podcast now receives more than 200,000 downloads a month. Are you interested in sponsoring an episode? Please email me at David@10xcapital.com.
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SPONSOR:
Carta is the all-in-one suite for private fund operations. Carta’s software-based approach takes fund administration out of the spreadsheet and into the modern age with powerful solutions and intuitive interfaces, all on one platform. Their suite of products and expert services help funds at any stage with up-to-date insights and automated workflows to get them to the next level. Learn more at: https://z.carta.com/10xpod
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SPONSOR:
Reed Smith is a dynamic international law firm dedicated to helping clients move their businesses forward. With an inclusive culture and innovative mindset, Reed Smith delivers smarter, more creative legal services that drive better outcomes for their clients. Their deep industry knowledge, long-standing relationships and collaborative structure make them the go-to partner for complex disputes, transactions, and regulatory matters. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.
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X / Twitter:
@dweisburd (David Weisburd)
@Hansenringer
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Questions or topics you want us to discuss on The 10X Capital Podcast? Email us at david@10xcapital.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
(0:00) Episode Preview
(2:44) Decision-making factors and sector allocation strategies
(6:42) Public market insights and stock-bond correlation
(10:51) Avoidable asset classes and diversification benefits
(13:18) Sponsor: Reed Smith
(13:43) Hedge funds from an institutional perspective
(15:41) Role of managed futures and GP-led secondaries
(21:21) Liquidity considerations in investment strategies
(24:10) Structured deals and fund performance analysis
(26:45) Evaluating private equity managers' prowess
(28:38) Sponsor: Carta
(31:48) Treasuries, cash, and lessons from Sepio Capital
(35:04) Adapting to new investment spaces and LP investing mistakes
(37:53) Partnership dynamics and the value of off-list references
(41:56) Closing remarks
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