Uncertainty and Ideology

Oct 20, 2023

The hosts discuss the rise of uncertainty, importance of attention, and impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. They delve into topics such as U.S.-Venezuela relations, Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, and the future of Mexico. They explore the relationship between attention, uncertainty, and investments, and touch upon Warren Buffett's career and short-termism in American politics. They also examine the concept of progress, its measurement, and the exponential growth of technology.

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Introduction

00:00 • 3min

Personal anecdotes and a discussion on uncertainty and ideology

02:38 • 2min

The Impact of Attention and Uncertainty on Investments

04:10 • 9min

Warren Buffett's Career and the Volatility Cycle

13:23 • 2min

Uncertainty and its Connection to Fear

14:54 • 15min

Short-Termism in American Politics and Global Presence

30:21 • 38min

Progress and Technology

01:07:53 • 2min

Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty

(12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty

(17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now?

(25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences

(36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction?

(41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints?

(56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment

(01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment?

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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