“The trajectory of the future could soon get set in stone” by William_MacAskill, Forethought

Is there anything we can do to make the longterm future go better other than preventing the risk of extinction?

My paper, Persistent Path-Dependence, addresses that question. I suggest there are a number of mechanisms that are fairly likely to be developed within our lifetimes that would result in extremely persistent path-dependent effects of predictable expected value. These include the creation of AGI-enforced institutions, a global concentration of power, the widespread settlement of space, the first immortal beings, the widespread design of new beings, and the ability to self-modify in significant and lasting ways.

I’m not very confident that such events will occur, but in my view they’re likely enough to make work to steer them in better directions very valuable. Let's take each mechanism in turn.

First, AGI-based institutions. Once we have AGI, decision-makers could:

• Set up an institution, and align the AGI so that it understands [...]

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First published:
August 11th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/edpMbLKSqahoNxzgi/the-trajectory-of-the-future-could-soon-get-set-in-stone

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