In this podcast, Steve Hsu, a genomic prediction and gene editing researcher, discusses various topics including genomic prediction, IVF, predicting height, pleiotropy, gene editing, super intelligent humans, regulation, human values, 23andMe, Jeff Bezos, Richard Feynman, the presence of famous scientists in today's era, and the perception of declining education quality.
Genomic Prediction aims to use genomic data to accurately predict complex traits and disease risks based on an individual's DNA.
Complex traits, including cognitive abilities, are influenced by a small fraction of genetic variants within the human genome, allowing for accurate predictions.
Genetic engineering and embryo selection raise ethical concerns and require careful consideration of technological limitations, data collection, and societal impact.
Advancements in genomic prediction and genetic engineering have the potential to align human and machine intelligence, but responsible implementation and ethical considerations are crucial.
Deep dives
The Potential of Genomic Prediction
Genomic Prediction, a startup founded by Steve Shoe, aims to use genomic data to predict various traits and risks associated with individuals based on their DNA. By analyzing large datasets of genotyped individuals, the company's goal is to accurately predict complex traits such as height, disease risks, and cognitive abilities. The founders believe that with enough data and improved machine learning algorithms, it is possible to make predictions with high accuracy. They focus on the potential applications in areas like IVF, where selecting embryos with desirable traits can provide families with better choices. While the technology exists, ethical and data collection considerations are crucial factors to address before implementing genomic prediction strategies.
The Genetic Architecture of Complex Traits
The research conducted by Steve Shoe's team suggests that complex traits, including cognitive abilities, are controlled by a relatively small fraction of genetic variants within the human genome. While these traits are influenced by many variants, the predictors developed by genomic prediction focus on a subset of these variants to make accurate predictions. The polygenic scores used in the prediction models consider thousands of genetic markers, allowing for accurate estimation of an individual's probability for certain traits or diseases. The predictive power of these models and the potential ability to improve complex traits like intelligence raise significant questions about the ethical implications and technical challenges related to genetic engineering and gene editing.
Ethical Considerations and Technical Challenges
The idea of genetically engineering or selecting embryos based on desirable traits raises ethical concerns and necessitates careful consideration of the societal impact. While it is scientifically feasible to improve certain traits through gene editing or embryo selection, the technology currently faces limitations. Editing the human genome still involves significant risks, and identifying causal genetic variants for complex traits remains a challenge. Furthermore, societal considerations, data collection, and ethical implications must be addressed before implementing genomic prediction strategies on a larger scale. However, the potential for large-scale improvements in human health and traits cannot be dismissed, and these discussions are ongoing among researchers and industry experts.
The Future of Genomic Prediction and Human Enhancement
The advancement of genomic prediction and its potential for human enhancement raises questions about the future of genetic engineering and the role of machine intelligence. As AI technology progresses, the race between machine intelligence and human intelligence intensifies. The ability to improve human intelligence through genetic enhancements could play a role in aligning human and machine intelligence and solving the challenges associated with advanced AI systems. It's important to explore the societal implications of these advancements and find a balance between scientific progress and ethical considerations to ensure responsible and beneficial outcomes.
The Importance of Genetic Technologies
Genetic technologies, such as genomic analysis and IVF, have low barriers to entry compared to other fields like AI or nuclear weapons. The computational analysis of large genomic datasets and the use of IVF are relatively low-cost and accessible. While the pace of genetic advancements is slow due to the human generational timescale, it allows for ample time to study and rectify potential mistakes. Despite concerns about runaway human genetic engineering, it is unlikely to result in the destruction of the human species. The risk lies more in the ability to genetically engineer viruses, which is a separate issue. The global adoption of genetic technologies is inevitable, with East Asian countries expected to make significant progress in this field even if other regions face obstacles.
The Role of Machines and Human Intelligence
There is an ongoing debate about the future of human intelligence in comparison to machine intelligence. The development of genetic technologies is praised by AI experts who believe that machines will eventually surpass human brainpower. As machines become more advanced, the future of the planet may be determined by machine intelligence rather than human intellect. Furthermore, the preference for optimizing physical appearance, like celebrities, is often prioritized over the enhancement of brainpower. While the contributions of highly intelligent individuals drive progress in society, they are not always recognized or understood by the majority who focus on popularity or physical achievements.
Genomics and Personalized Medicine
Genetic engineering advancements present opportunities for personalized medicine and disease prevention. Embryo genotyping allows for the identification of potential genetic risks, such as the presence of cancer-related variants. By analyzing the genomes of parents and embryos, individuals with high genetic risks can make informed decisions, like opting for IVF and selecting embryos with lower risks. Additionally, polygenic analysis enables the calculation of an individual's genetic predisposition for diseases like breast cancer. However, there is a need to better educate the medical community about the power of polygenic scores and its implications for determining disease risks.
