What If Earnings Guidance Disappoints? How Low Could Stocks Fall? | Lance Roberts

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Jan 24, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager known for macro and valuation-focused analysis, weighs in on market risks and extreme valuations. He discusses the consequences if corporate earnings guidance disappoints and how far stocks might fall. They also cover silver’s surge above $100, the role of ETFs and margin debt in fueling speculation, and opportunities in commodities and energy stocks.

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INSIGHT

Market Valuations Are Historically Elevated

Markets are extremely overvalued and correlations have compressed so almost everything rises together right now.
That increases the risk of a broad mean reversion that could hit many asset classes at once.

ADVICE

Take Profits And Rebalance Now

Take profits and rebalance while markets are strong to manage risk and capture gains.
Reallocate into undervalued assets to preserve wealth and maintain volatility balance.

ANECDOTE

Adam's Silver Laser-Eye Story

Adam shared that he added silver laser-eye profile photos after silver broke out above $35 and joked about taking a portion of gains.
He also said he's hedging and taking profits in paper and physical exposures while keeping some long-term ounces.

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comToday's extremely high valuation levels for stocks hangs on future forecasted corporate earnings.We're about to start earnings season. What if guidance disappoints?If it does, how far could stocks drop?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds in this week's Market Recap, as well as $100/oz silver, $5,000/oz gold, S&P 7000, rising bond yields, and the prospects for oil & gas stocks.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#marketcorrection #earnings #silverprice _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.